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Possibilities to win the NASCAR race in Kentucky: skilled choice and favorites for profitable the Cup Sequence race on Sunday

Choosing a winner based on the odds of winning the NASCAR Cup Series race on Sunday at Kentucky Speedway is difficult because the event is now a day race. NASCAR’s schedule changes during the COVID-19 pandemic moved the Kentucky Cup race to Sunday afternoon rather than traditional Saturday evening, and the track conditions will be different in the heat of the day than in the cool of the night.

This means that the results of past races in Kentucky are not so helpful when it comes to predicting how the race will develop on Sunday. Only one of the nine NASCAR Cup Series races in the 1.5-mile oval in Sparta, Kentucky was a day race, and that was due to a rain lag in 2014.

MORE: Complete grid for Sunday’s race in Kentucky

The chances for Sunday’s NASCAR race in Kentucky are also interesting as Kevin Harvick, the favorite to win, has never been on the winning streak on this particular track. One of two locations (the Charlotte ROVAL is the other) where the current Cup Series leader is located has not won.

Below are the full Vegas odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race in Kentucky, as well as our top three drivers who may reach the checkered flag.

NASCAR racing opportunities in Kentucky

Although Harvick hasn’t won any of the nine Cup Series races that have been held in Kentucky since 2011, he’s the favorite for Sunday’s race as he’s been dominant lately. He not only tops the points table with 85 points ahead of runner-up Chase Elliott, but after winning Indianapolis last week, he and Denny Hamlin are tied with four points for most wins this year. Harvick has held the top spot in points since March.

And it’s not that Harvick was bad at his nine starts in Kentucky. He posted a top 5, six top 10 and an average score of 10.8.

Below are full chances to win the Sunday NASCAR Cup Series race in Kentucky courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

driver
Chances of winning for the race in Kentucky
Kevin Harvick
+370
Chase Elliott
+550
Denny Hamlin
+550
Kyle Busch
+700
Brad Keselowski
+900
Joey Logano
+900
Martin Truex Jr.
+900
Ryan Blaney
+1200
Alex Bowman
+1900
Jimmie Johnson
+3100
Kurt Busch
+3100
Aric Almirola
+3200
William Byron
+3200
Erik Jones
+3500
Clint Bowyer
+4700
Matt Kenseth
+5500
Matt DiBenedetto
+7000
Tyler Reddick
+7000
Justin Allgaier
+8000
Christopher Bell
+11000
Austin Dillon
+15000
Ryan Newman
+15000
Brennan Poole
+20000
Chris Buescher
+20000
Cole Custer
+20000
Corey LaJoie
+20000
Daniel Suarez
+20000
Bubba Wallace
+20000
Ty Dillon
+20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
+20000
Garrett Smithley
+20000
JJ Yeley
+20000
Joey gases
+20000
John Hunter Nemechek
+20000
Michael McDowell
+20000
Quin Houff
+20000
Ross Chastain
+20000
Ryan Preece
+20000
Timmy Hill
+20000

Of the drivers who are currently among the top 10 points in the NASCAR Cup Series, Kyle Busch (10th in points) has by far the best driver rating in Kentucky. Its 125.5 rating is well north of Brad Keselowski’s 105.5, Martin Truex Jr.’s 102.6 and Harvicks 102.4.

Below are the top 10 driver ratings on the Kentucky Speedway among those in the field on Sunday.

Kyle Busch, 125.5Brad Keselowski, 105.5Martin Truex Jr., 102.6Kevin Harvick, 102.4Matt Kenseth, 101.7Erik Jones, 98.3Kurt Busch, 93.7Joey Logano, 93.7Jimmie Johnson, 89.9Ryan Blaney, 89.8

Busch not only has the best rating for the race on Sunday, but also the advantage of starting on pole, based on the random drawing of the starting positions on Wednesday.

Three of the nine races in the Kentucky Cup Series were won from pole position, including the victory for Busch in 2011 when qualifying was canceled due to weather conditions. Five of the nine Cup Series races in Kentucky were won from the front row.

Below is a breakdown of victories from all positions that have resulted in winners in the history of the Cup race (nine races in total) in Kentucky.

Starting position
Win%
Wins
1
33.3 percent
3rd
2 ..
22.2 percent
2nd
4 ..
11.1 percent
1
8th ..
11.1 percent
1
9 ..
11.1 percent
1
16 ..
11.1 percent
1

The top 10 starters for the Sunday race in Kentucky are: 1st Kyle Busch, 2nd Joey Logano, 3rd Kevin Harvick, 4th Aric Almirola, 5th Alex Bowman, 6th Brad Keselowski, 7th Kurt Busch, 8th Chase Elliott, 9th Martin Truex Jr., 10th Matt DiBenedetto

NASCAR at Kentucky expert selection

1. Kyle Busch

Career statistics at Kentucky:

Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10; a pole average result of 4,667, serial best average running position of 4,606, serial best driver rating of 125.5, serial best330 fastest lap run, serial best 2,329 laps in the top 15 (96.8%), standard 282 quality passes, fifth – most

Busch, who is 0:16 this season, is not afraid to choose the driver who is statistically the best in the series in Kentucky. Joe Gibbs Racing has clear speed this season, as evidenced by his five wins. Time for the defending champion of the Cup Series for 2020.

2. Kevin Harvick

Career statistics at Kentucky:

A top 5, six top 10s average result of 10.778, fifth best average running position of 8.048, second best driver rating of 102.4, fourth best 96 fastest laps, fifth best 2.135 laps in the top 15 (88.8%), second most339 quality passes, serial most

This is a boring choice, but it’s hard not to compete with the Sunday race favorite and the driver who did an absurd 14.81 percent of the laps he did this season. Harvick is in a hot phase and wants to take his first win on a track that tends to run well.

3. Joey Logano

Career statistics at Kentucky:

Two top fives, six top 10s, average result of 12.778, eight best average running position of 12.332, eight best driver rating of 93.7, eight best 89 fastest laps, seventh best 1.599 laps in the top 15 (66.5%), seventh-most258 quality passes, seventh

Yes, Brad Keselowski is the Team Penske driver who was the best in Kentucky and has had three wins on the track in the past nine years. But it’s not that Logano went badly. He also has three Xfinity Series victories in Kentucky. The Penske service should be issued again on Sunday.

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